"BREXIT" - for those of you not familiar......

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"BREXIT" - for those of you not familiar......

Post by jimimaseye » 2016-06-23 00:06

....it is coined phrase meaning "BRitains EXIT . And for those of you that live the other side of the world, dont have TV or simply dont care about world affairs, there is a referendum vote tomorrow by the PEOPLE of the United Kingdom asking them whether they want to remain in, or completely leave, Europe.

Campaigning has been going on for nearly 2 months now. Daily. Nightly, Radio, television, newspaper. On and on and on and on..... The same faces, the same bullshit, the same points repeated over and over again. The REMAIN campaign can only tell you what is now and therefore predict how bad it will be if we leave. The LEAVE camp is just full of the alternative, without any facts at all (because there is none - this has never happened before) except the claim about the REMAIN being "ooh, everything is doom and gloom with them and they are trying to scare you).

Well yeah. When I was a kid, I was told not to approach the angry dog bearing its teeth 'because it might bite'. You know what, its stopped me from getting bitten. Because I knew that doing nothing is safer and more guaranteed than the 'what might happen' consequences if I chose the alternative action and stick my hand in front of his mouth. (At best, it gets licked but doesn't give any new benefit, at worst it gets bitten off and is never to be seen again).

The LEAVE say in an empowered voice, "Come on, today is OR Independence Day. Take a chance, we can do it!" (whoop whoop!). Yep, come on, take a chance. But when your economy has plummeted, jobs have disappeared, prices have risen, at least you can say "But at least we voted for this misery instead of being told by Europe". Its great for a film tag line of 110 minutes, but this is REAL LIFE people. There is no guaranteed scripted happy ending and you cant turn it off.

Arguments should have been about jobs, freedom to travel across Europe, economy, low prices (flights, holidaying in any of the 28 countries within a flight of no more than 4 hours maximum - something that our Aussie and American friends cant possibly understand or appreciate), money trading and transfers between our currency and the Euro, freedom to carry goods across the continent without checks, the benefits of freedom to travel to study without visas and checks, freedom to buy what you want, from where you want, and as much as you want and bringing it home without paying import duty and admin fees, extra taxres and being restricted to only 2 packets of cigarettes and not being allow to carry teabags or a banana (travellers to Australia will no EXACTLY what I am referring to there).

And you know what? Even now, with 7 hours to go before the voting starts, people still think "damn them immigrants! We need to stop them and introduce Aussie style points system". Thats despite that 60% of our immigrants are from outside of the EU and ARE subject to checks and a points system! And despite Australia having 40% 'immigrant' population that have all come in through that very points system. So yeah, the points system REALLY stops the immigrant levels, doesnt it?!

[this is the shorted rant]

Im disgusted. People are so STUPID that they just are blinded by bollocks (google it, the 2nd definition) and what they hear in the last 5 minute window. No common sense, total selfishness and completely without a real view of the future.

God help me Friday morning.

(And all this 2 months before I am due to settle with my Italian-born missus in England. After Friday she wont even be allowed to come and live with me. I wont be able to get jobs for us, my family will be split and living apart and the country will be depressed. But thats alright, at least 'Geoff', living on his pension, in Yorkshire in the north of England got what he wanted when he voted to stop immigrants (that he NEVER encounters) that come to live, work in LONDON and provide a service to us (in Health Care as Doctors, nurses etc).

I hope youre happy Geoff!
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Re: "BREXIT" - for those of you not familiar......

Post by Dravion » 2016-06-23 00:39

Its in the German TV and Newspapers and Newssites all over. Countles Talkshows about what will happend to the rest of the EU and how the UK will made it.I believe the Scotts want to stay in the EU and maybe a new scottish independence referendum is at the Doorsteps. If you ask me, i think we should stick together. Its true, the Muslim refugee situation is a big problem for all EU countries but i believe its now handled better from day to day and its only a matter of time ISIS is finished and things will normalize.
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Re: "BREXIT" - for those of you not familiar......

Post by jimimaseye » 2016-06-23 00:54

Indeed.

My despair is that people are terrified by the current situation of the migrants. But to consider that STOPPING this is MORE KIMPORTANT than the current benefits than we get from the integrated EU membership is just ludicrous.

But thats the state of people.

The irony here is that our LEAVE campaign negatively suggest that the REMAIN campaign is "Project Fear" (as in trying to scare people all the time about what happens if we stay). And yet, the one reason they want to leave is because they are scared (of what the MiddleEast/African migrants will do.)
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Re: "BREXIT" - for those of you not familiar......

Post by mattg » 2016-06-23 03:14

I hear that people are so passionate about this that a politician was killed over it.

From an Aussie perspective (where did the 40% immigrant number come from btw, and what points system do we have?? I'm confused), we can see benefits both ways.
We expect that sticking together will be better for Germany and France - the perceived power brokers in the EU), and allow some rational combined fixing of the issues.
Full EU integration (money etc) will make England one of the power forces.
Full exit from EU may see the collapse of the whole shebang, with other countries eg Italy, deciding also to leave, and so on until all gone.

Full Exit may mean that Brittan's identity is not lost, and many of us in Australia see the UK as like our spiritual home. Many of us have ancestry from the UK (and no, they weren't all convicts, and some of the convicts were political prisoners from Ireland, or deserters from the armed forces fleeing a empire building war machine).

Will either way protect jobs or the economy? I doubt that.
Will either way limit migration? I doubt that.

Perhaps you should officially 'settle with your Italian born missus' before Friday, just in case. Stranger things have happened elsewhere in the world. I knew some ex-Rhodesian forces personnel that got married and evacuated with less than 30 hours notice, once the decision to hand that country back was officially made. He was fighting for the wrong side and would have been killed once Zimbabwe was created. They had to be married or she couldn't get evacuated too. (That middle aged, mild mannered accountant sure earned co-workers respect at a work skirmish / paint gun party)

You and your missus could always immigrate to Australia. We take refugees from everywhere, even the UK.
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Re: "BREXIT" - for those of you not familiar......

Post by SorenR » 2016-06-23 08:10

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Re: "BREXIT" - for those of you not familiar......

Post by jimimaseye » 2016-06-23 08:56

mattg wrote:From an Aussie perspective (where did the 40% immigrant number come from btw, and what points system do we have?? I'm confused), we can see benefits both ways.
We expect that sticking together will be better for Germany and France - the perceived power brokers in the EU), and allow some rational combined fixing of the issues.
Full EU integration (money etc) will make England one of the power forces.
Full exit from EU may see the collapse of the whole shebang, with other countries eg Italy, deciding also to leave, and so on until all gone.
THe 40% fugure initially came from the BBC in one of their analysis earlier this week (one has to trust where tey get their facts from). However, a quick look and your government says it is 28.2% as of last year "born overseas". The BBC article also included the population of those born to those families (in other words, the 28.2% + their children now born in australia). Of course, we could argue that you are all 'families of immigrants' but I guess there is a more specific condition they refer to when calculating this - like being first level descendant to foreign born parent) rather than being a long-distant relative to Fingers McGraw sent there in 1800 :lol: . You should remember that your most populated area is Queensland and New South Wales (mainly down the East coast) and Sydney is very populated and VERY full of foreigners. (Australia really doesnt have that many people despite its size). So the figure isnt a surprise to me.

THe 'points system' - trust me, it exists. It's possible, and understandable, that you dont really know about it - why would you? You will never need it and really its an 'internal formula' in place by your Border Agency. However, everyone that has thought about emigrating to Aus VERY WELL know about it. You cant just go to live there without you having achieved certain points which come with specific skilled jobs or much-needed jobs (Doctor, Plumber, nurse type thing), or having a certain amount of capital (big bank balance!) to support yourself, or already have a valid job offer and being 'sponsored'/supported by a company.

Youre right about sticking together being better for France and Germany - they are the powerhouses of the EU. Even with the risk of Greece leaving they were all getting twitchy because of the potential knock-on effect of others doing the same. But France and Germany will not let Italy leave. They are too big and will bankrupt the EU.


The problem with the immigration problem is that they people, now older, have had 60 years seeing "their country being taken over" (SIC). But these people were not EU immigrants, they were invited immigrans from India, Pakistan and other old-colonial contries. Theses are the same people that brought their own wealth, run very successful businesses oin property and local supermarkets (biut it seems that isnt important - they still get labelled as 'taking our jobs' Ridiculous). The problem is tha because of their visual differences colour, culture dress, religion), they are instantly recognisable and people get easily overwhelmed.

So what is their answer?

Ban the europeans from coming in. That'll solve it!

No, of course it wont:
a, Europeans are (in the main) white (I mean, inconspicuous by colour alone) and often of the same culture/religion. You only know the difference in them when they SPEAK (language). So even if they do come there will not be a perception of increased 'foreigners' any more than there is now (Remember, I am talking about the mildly racist view of average Joe Publics discrimination based on COLOUR, CULTURE and RELIGION - all of which are or less is the same throughout Europe but noticeable further on beyond the boundaries. (Im not racist, these are facts that I am identifying).

b, it changes NOTHING about the existing 'migrant' population.

Now, want to know how right I am with suggesting this is the reason for them voting to Leave? Because one of the biggest 'cards' that were played by the LEAVE campaign was the suggestion that TURKEY was due to join the EU and that would flood Europe. Now, why is this a problem? What makes them different for the other 4 eastern european coutries (Estonia etc) also due to join? Because they are not white, and are (mainly) Muslim! Thats why. OH THE HORROR. And we cant possibly have that , can we?! THIS is the only reason TURKEY was singled-out. So what does that say about the vote LEAVErs.

And the worse point is that Turkey wouldnt have hit joining criteria until at least year 2100 at which all of the current voters will be long dead!

Anyway, voting has started .... and Im scared.


p.s Re Sorens post: Yeah, and that will come to an end. Chances of Spain (EU) letting random english man to come set up a business or move there for a long holiday doing some bar work? Without a visa? Cheaply?

Not gonna happen. It will all become difficult.

(But thats alright, Grandad Geoff has stopped the Turks from coming to England in 90 years time)

Thanks Geoff.
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Re: "BREXIT" - for those of you not familiar......

Post by jimimaseye » 2016-06-24 05:24

4:20 am - votes still coming in and currently LEAVE 51.3% - 48.7% REMAIN (after 66% of all results/ 21.9million votes returned so far).

That;s a done deal. UK has voted to LEAVE Europe.

I would say Im going 'home' now (back to the UK) but am scared and embarrassed to do so.

A black day for us.

Dont talk to me, Im depressed. :cry:
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Re: "BREXIT" - for those of you not familiar......

Post by jimimaseye » 2016-06-24 15:34

Ok, so the fools in the UK have voted out.

634,751 people - If they had voted REMAIN instead of leave it would be a remain win. Out of 33.5million.

Incredible.

And in the all-day analysis and reporting on TV news, Ive heard public being interviewed this morning:

Woman on TV all sad:
"I actually voted to leave but woke up this morning and saw the result and the reality hit me. If I could vote again then I would vote to stay".

FRICKIN' IDIOT!!!

Well done!! Youve contributed to ruining many peoples futures and prosperity just because you cant understand the concept of a VOTE.


And another woman, in Wales, that is always in Net Profit due to EU contributions, voted LEAVE.

(Reporter) Q: why did you vote leave, if you get all this money from EU?
A: because we pay too much to Europe. And recently the council have closed all the toilets.

(Ill say no more because you are clever to work out the maddening irony here).

These people are dangerous to themselves!!!

THIS is why we shouldnt have referendums and why we vote for POLITICIANS to make decisions.

Im gutted to have been a partly linked to these people. I predicted OLD, WHITE people living in areas with little 'cultural diversity' would have all voted Leave. And the statistics shown this morning, outside of the predictable South East port areas, it was right.

I hope Albert and Barbara living in their ALL WHITE ENGLISH community in the North of England are happy, spending their pension - no job to rely on, knowing they have RUINED other peoples prospects and stopped the migrant coming to live in London at the other end of the country!

Angry, sad, completely bewildered. And embarrassed.
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Re: "BREXIT" - for those of you not familiar......

Post by Dravion » 2016-06-24 18:49

I feel your pain. BUT there are some dynamic elements in this situation and maybe this will change a few things. It looks like North Ireland, Gibraltar and Scottland stepping up and want to secede from the UK and rejoin the EU idependently. Now comes the interresting part.Chapter 50 of the EU contract describes the process how a country must leave the EU. The negotations can take serveral years before secession is really implemented. In this delay time the UK can revoke its decision and automatically stays in the EU. I think many Brits will now realize the upcomming problems and UK internal pressure. Maybe in October if David Cameron is replaced we will see an Anti-Brexit Candidate...
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Re: "BREXIT" - for those of you not familiar......

Post by jimimaseye » 2016-06-24 19:42

It is true that Article 50 hasnt been invoked yet (despite him warning that it would be immediately on the day after a vote to leave - but thats politicians). It is true that the referendum isnt legally binding and is, in effect, just an 'opinion of the public'. And yes, its true it could be ignored by whatever new PM comes along. (In a way I admire Cameron for not invoking it because it is the final move to exit EU and not something that he wants to do. Its a principal thing). However, should it not be invoked then there would be carnage. A revolution. The people were promised it would be enacted and then its not. That will not go down well.

My problem is this, though. As the (minimum 3 month) delay to it being invoked allows the turmoil of Northern Ireland, Scotland etc to progress with them going about being independent which would effectively break up the United Kingdom (creating 4 separate autonomous countries), it would give the new PM/government chance to reflect and REALLY ask themselves if invoking is it really what they should do knowing this disastrous outcome. Are the voices of 675,000 people (the difference that swung the vote to LEAVE) enough to continue with this sovereign country breakdown? (Especially as we have already seen evidence of people saying "I wished I hadnt voted LEAVE now" - could there be another 675,000 people saying the same?)

Well, of course, they will still do it (unfortunately). For the very reasons said above. I really wish they wouldnt. It is a DEMOCRACY, with a promise to carry out the will of the people. And if they dont do, what will that say to the world about our values (and to the people themselves).

And there's your problem.

100 reasons why not to continue with this yet just 1 reason ("the principal of democracy") as to why do it - despite the disaster it will be.

Lessons:
1, Appoint politicians and allow them to do things on your behalf. Thats how a modern Western Democratic country works. They are paid to and they DO KNOW BETTER (even when you think they do not).
2, Never ask the people to consider more than 1 point. If a decision has to consider many things, recall their vote and dont ask them. They simply dont have the capactity to understand.
3, If you think about putting a referendum to the people, go back and read point 1 and 2.


I have just one outstanding question (which of course I know the answer to) but food for thought:

Why did they have a referendum on the long term FUTURE of the country and its prosperity and allow OVER 60's to vote? After all, it isnt THEIR future they are voting on. It was mainly the over 60's that dragged us in to a majority LEAVE camp. And why werent the 16 year-olds allowed to vote? Their future (and all the other youth - the MAJORITY of which have been in dismay today due to the result), scuppered by old zenophobic farts (old enough to go in the army for the country but not old enough to decide on the countries direction? Wrong. VERY wrong.

(p.s I dont beloieve that once Article 50 has been invoked, that it can be rescinded/withdrawn. Even if it was possible in law, Junker and his arrogant eurocrats simply will not let them. He wants us gone NOW and thinks its wrong we are delaying even 3 months. Such is the arrogance of the man).
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Re: "BREXIT" - for those of you not familiar......

Post by Dravion » 2016-06-24 21:20

Yeah this was my thinking as i said " the pressure will rise". Maybe a few old farts changing there minds.Regarding Junker: He was a verry sad man today in tv and a lot of Europeans where not happy to.Even the Idiot Farrage explains that some sort of numbers where wrong and Johnnyboy explains to some BBC Journalists ("dont take me to serious") - thats why John Major called him a Clown. As i see it: Cameron was the Moron who came up with this whole referendum situation to ease internal torry party tensions.

IMHO: Exit from brexit would be the best and a new referendum before October should be arranged before other regions of the UK trying to secede.
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Re: "BREXIT" - for those of you not familiar......

Post by jimimaseye » 2016-06-24 21:36

Dravion wrote:IMHO: Exit from brexit would be the best and a new referendum before October should be arranged before other regions of the UK trying to secede.
Common sense. But, unfortunately, as proven by the fact that the referendum was run in the first pace, and that the people have voted to leave, common sense doesnt come in it and alas it isnt going to happen. That said, whether another referendum was run, or article 50 simply ignored amd we stay anytway, or LEAVE carried out as promised - nothing is going to please everyone and nothing will end nicely. Nothing.
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Re: "BREXIT" - for those of you not familiar......

Post by RvdH » 2016-06-25 01:27

A well, at least your allowed to stay at Euro 2016...would have been fun seeing the British be banned, especially because after all these years they finally passed group fase :lol:
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Re: "BREXIT" - for those of you not familiar......

Post by katip » 2016-06-25 01:49

jimimaseye wrote:Now, want to know how right I am with suggesting this is the reason for them voting to Leave? Because one of the biggest 'cards' that were played by the LEAVE campaign was the suggestion that TURKEY was due to join the EU and that would flood Europe. Now, why is this a problem? What makes them different for the other 4 eastern european coutries (Estonia etc) also due to join? Because they are not white, and are (mainly) Muslim! Thats why. OH THE HORROR. And we cant possibly have that , can we?! THIS is the only reason TURKEY was singled-out. So what does that say about the vote LEAVErs.

And the worse point is that Turkey wouldnt have hit joining criteria until at least year 2100 at which all of the current voters will be long dead!
A good example to how average people can easily be manipulated by massmedia (majority owned by Jewish capital). In fact, Turkey doesn't give a damn about entering EU anymore since about 10 years. Who cares? Me and anyone i know here, not! (BTW, "farsighted" Cameron not even 1 month ago was talking about that Turkey won't enter EU before year 3000, and then still very difficult. Comedy... He'd better think about his 1 month after instead of Turkey's 1000 years :) )

About other eastern european countries... 3 Baltics already premium members with Euro currency since some years. I tell you what, their economy all together isn't worth, say.. even as metropol Istanbul's. And yes, Turks are (white too, but) Muslims. This is the problem in western public opinion, because massmedia wants it to be THE problem!

UK was a dagger stabbed in EU (read Germany & Co.) by USA. No Euro, no Schengen, kinda pseudo-member, just safety and economic concerns. Masks off, double standards so obvious as they have never been. It's a good idea to closely watch Italy and (I think) some CE countries from now on.

Certainly there is a lot to talk about this and will surely be talked. Sorry for my probably inconsistent paragraphs, it's quarter to 3 AM here ;)
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Re: "BREXIT" - for those of you not familiar......

Post by jimimaseye » 2016-06-25 10:21

In fairness to Cameron (and others) about the claim of Turkey joining in 3000: obviously its an exaggerated/invented year designed to show the scared/doubtful about Turkeys progression in achieving the 37 (I think) joining criteria. Since applying in 1987, they have hit just 2 apparently. (So 2 in 30 years - you can see why a such a random figure is created). Of course, it actually doesnt matter WHY they havent achieved more (whether they be because the government just hasnt tried, because its too difficult or because some are just against what Turkey believes in and so they actually just dont want to/against the culture) but he facts are it has applied and it has taken so long to do so little and this is why they say it will be eons away before Turkey join....if ever.
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Re: "BREXIT" - for those of you not familiar......

Post by jimimaseye » 2016-06-25 10:36

Ooh, an Off Topic 'Off Topic' post. :)
RvdH wrote:A well, at least your allowed to stay at Euro 2016...would have been fun seeing the British be banned, especially because after all these years they finally passed group fase :lol:
Quarter Finals in 2012. "All these years" doesnt really apply to 'since the last tournament'. Perhaps you meant this about your own team (no sign of them in the Quarter finals).

Linking it back to topic: of course this Brexit wouldnt have affected the Euro's participation anyway, as it is based on a GEOGRAPHIC europe, not a political one. (Cant see Russia ever joining the European Union.)
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Re: "BREXIT" - for those of you not familiar......

Post by jimimaseye » 2016-06-25 10:59

73% over 18-24 year olds voted remain.

Can you imagine if they had included the 16 and 17 year olds - it could very possibly have won the REMAIN vote.
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Re: "BREXIT" - for those of you not familiar......

Post by katip » 2016-06-25 11:55

jimimaseye wrote:In fairness to Cameron (and others) about the claim of Turkey joining in 3000: obviously its an exaggerated/invented year designed to show the scared/doubtful about Turkeys progression in achieving the 37 (I think) joining criteria. Since applying in 1987, they have hit just 2 apparently. (So 2 in 30 years - you can see why a such a random figure is created).
35 criteria actually. Negotiations started in 2005. 1 chapter closed, 13 ongoing. A detailed table about current situation is here : http://www.ikv.org.tr/images/files/curr ... key(1).pdf

it's charade. EU won't accept TR till 3000, OTOH no way dares to leave it alone and pretends negotiating for the next 350-400 years hoping having TR fooled. what a love :lol:

understandable that it's really not easy for EU. Bulgary, for instance, may play the loyal watchdog, hence granted a membership. you can't try this with TR in it's geography. it takes it all!! :wink:
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Re: "BREXIT" - for those of you not familiar......

Post by jimimaseye » 2016-06-25 12:44

It is said that the biggest hurdle/object the Turkey encounters as that of Human Rights. They do have a problem and unfortunately despite being a supposedly 'peaceful' religion (Islam), they have major intolerances to different flavours of it (something that seems rife across the middle-east and Africa).

I cant say any more about this because I am staunchly against any religion (an athiest) for reasons that the above epitomises. I do not understand why people use an external preacher (often fictional) or hypothetical 'superior being' often referred to as "God/Allah/etc" to justify and guide their own actions for themselves and against others. It's almost as if people dont have their own minds to think for themselves. Without religion 90+% of all the wars would not have happened and there would be little else to fight over (leaving just LAND borders being drawn based on language and skin colour segregation :( ). It has been been going on for thousands of years. Even in the supposedly more tolerant (and equally ridiculous) 'Christian' world just as recently (some could argue, even NOW) there is Catholics versus Protestants in Northern Ireland.

We are supposed to be superior beings in the Earths world of creatures. And yet, we are the only ones that maintain such practices to live, tolerate (or not tolerate) other's thoughts of a similar subject and sometimes even persecute them. It is just plain ridiculous. We Human are not that smart after all. (Ants do it better without 'religion' yet even they fight over territory and segregation of colour :lol: ).

And if we didnt have Religion, then we wouldnt be wasting 2+ hours a week in school in Religious Education studies (here in the UK), and instead could be further studying for a subject that is proven to bring help in future prosperity (like Maths, Science etc). And people wouldnt be wasting their time to go off and pray half way through the day and could use that time continuing to do whatever they were doing (often working for their own prosperity).

For the avoidance of doubt, this is my view/opinion of RELIGION and is not specific to any one religion at all. I accept it exists and I dont stop or attempt to influence anyone else in their choice and let them get on with it (except my son which I am responsible for until he is old enough to make his own decisions and choices).

Now stop Jim.

(Ive broken a personal rule to never talk about religion. Sorry. And Off topic. Back to Brexit.....).

Can anyone tell Im really bothered by this weeks events and just dismayed generally by what's going on in the world?
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Re: "BREXIT" - for those of you not familiar......

Post by mattg » 2016-06-25 13:01

jimimaseye wrote:...Without religion 90+% of all the wars would not have happened and there would be little else to fight over (leaving just LAND borders being drawn based on language and skin colour segregation :( ).
There was also a few about wanting self rule and some about political belief. And I'm sure some about sport, and then there was that one about my dad being better than your dad...

Without religion, we'd just find something else to fight about - that's the nature of mankind (unfortunately).
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Re: "BREXIT" - for those of you not familiar......

Post by jimimaseye » 2016-06-25 13:08

mattg wrote: and then there was that one about my dad being better than your dad...
Scandalous! My Dad has ALWAYS been better than your Dad. I thought you wer going to let this drop. Gggrrr.......

:wink: :lol:
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Re: "BREXIT" - for those of you not familiar......

Post by Dravion » 2016-06-25 17:01

Damm, i think we saw this crap comming...

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/po ... 02566.html
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Re: "BREXIT" - for those of you not familiar......

Post by Dravion » 2016-07-01 09:48

I changed my mind.

Juncker is indeed an idiot.
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Re: "BREXIT" - for those of you not familiar......

Post by jimimaseye » 2016-07-01 09:59

Dravion wrote:I changed my mind.

Juncker is indeed an idiot.
I would say more ARROGANT than idiot. Completely single-minded and oblivious to the 'damage' or dangers of his intended super-state union that he wants. Despite the warnings (Brexit, other MEPs asking to be more liberal with rules, and even more far-right uprisings against the EU establishment etc) he still refuses to acknowledge any problem in his plans.
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Re: "BREXIT" - for those of you not familiar......

Post by MrGadget » 2016-07-27 16:55

jimimaseye wrote:Ok, so the fools in the UK have voted out.
So it has been a month, you have a new PM, apparently committed to pushing on with the exit. I'm from the US, never been across the pond, but I'm interested in local perspectives. Care to update us (or perhaps just me)?

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Re: "BREXIT" - for those of you not familiar......

Post by jimimaseye » 2016-07-27 19:41

Well, an update of the little information is there is, I will do my best (Im in a rush right now)....

To be honest, as far as brexit goes, nothing has changed yet:

'They' (Europe) mostly want the UK to invoke Article 50 as soon as possible (thats the official legal "declaration" that we are going to leave). From that moment on there is exactly 2 years (the clock starts ticking) where *negotiations* can happen with the EU on what agreements we can have or maintain regarding the relationship with the EU. Its during this time that they have the chance to agree on whether we can continue 'dealing' with the EU. If nothing has been agreed, at the end of the 2 years we are automatically disposed of any relationship or agreements with the EU that were made up to now.

Here's the problem......

To negotiate with the EU on what trade/etc deals we can have with the EU, we need to have a negotiator. However, as a member of the EU up to now, we have never needed a negotiator because all trade negotiations were always done in Europe on our behalf (apparently). So we dont have a negotiator! And to get a negotiator we will likely need to ask of old ex-EU negotiators to work for us. So, lets negotiate with a negotiator about what he wants from us before he accepts our request. Oh, and dont forget, as an ex-EU negotiator they are likely to be PRO-Europe. Which brings us to today. Today, there was an announcement just 1 hour ago that the EU Commission has just announced the appointment of their chosen negotiator whose task is (going to eventually) negotiate with UK. And guess what? He's an EX-EU VICE PRESIDENT! So as far as being biased on pro-europe, he couldnt get any more biased and pro-EU. I will come back to this later.......

The next problem: the UK (Teresa May, PM) keeps saying that they WILL *Leave* but, quote, "wants time to discuss and work out what they will want to negotiate on once they begin". And of course this is frustrating those key EU-Ministers (France etc) that want us to start immediately and they absolutely refuse to speak a word of it until Article 50 has been invoked (no talks pre-talks). And this is only going to make things worse when it comes to actual negotiations. Why? Well......

....they are seriously pissed off (especially the main 6 founder members such as France, Germany etc). They are embarrassed that there are people/countries willing to not accept their single focused idealisms (and that voting out will weaken their stance somewhat and their economy). And they want to ensure that no other member countries in the EU do something as stupid as a Referendum (stopping the risk of the people doing this again).

So they want to ensure everything that UK is likely to want that isnt normal EU policy simply isnt going to happen. They have 3 main rules in dealing with the EU:
1, free movement of people
2, free movement of goods/trade (a "single market")
3, free movement of money

Now, of course, although our PM has said they will invoke article 50 and will go through the process, they are going to want to 'arrange an agreement' on keeping the trade (2, above) but without the hassles of open door borders (to control immigration). You see, immigration was one of the main points for people voting Leave. They thought that it was too high and being in Europe was the cause. What the BREXIT camp failed to highlight, (and in fairness also the Remain camp also failed to highlight well enough), that despite the government wanting net migration of 30,000 per year and actually exceeding 320,000, only 160,000 of those were from the EU (and only 75,000 of those were actually here NOT working/contributing to the economy)! So even with the immigration 'control', nothing is going to change. (We still have 160,000 non-EU migration happening, and even with whatever new 'system' they might have to control migration, chances are the 85,000 working EU migrants would still be accepted). One other thing to mention: the Brexit camp also kept saying it costs the UK £165million a week (net) to stay in and trade with the EU. And they want to stop paying this money (believing its better spending it on ourselves).

Behind the governments procrastinations they are trying to explain to the people they will get this and all hope is not lost whilst conveniently forgetting that there is another party in those negotiations and that other party (the EU) will have zero tolerance on those 3 principals AND want to PROVE to the other member states that life is better/easier to stay within the EU and not leave. They simply cannot and will not allow any concession to those principals as it would be a show of weakness and a fundamental contradiction to its own beliefs. So, in my opinion, it isnt going to happen! (Remember me saying above about who their negotiator is going to be?)

So, what will the outcome be?

Either, at the end of 2 years we will not have free trade with the EU, and will have YEARS of negotiations with other countries such as China and the U.S before they get anywhere. The countries economy will continue to suffer in the meantime, recession ensuing and people still pissed off by 'something' that we can no longer blame someone else for, but thats ok because at least we can CONTROL our immigration (letting them in but this time by choice as we have always done) but at least WE will be doing it and not the EU Commission. Well that's ok then. :roll:

OR

We will have an agreement with the EU to allow free trading but will have the caveat of allowing free movement of people. Oh, and to trade with them you do still have to pay a fee. (I dont know the value but is possible 10's if not 100's millions of pounds). The outcome: exactly what we have now! Still with uncontrolled migration and open borders, still costing us a fee (and not to mention the extra money we will have to payout directly to those areas of our country such as agriculture and science that previously benefited from 100's of millions in EU subsidies) and still with free trade and with their regulations (EU Laws) which you must agree to to trade with the EU but we simply will not have a say in those regulations. Oh but with the possibility of the United Kingdom being split from Scotland (which, because they want to stay in the EU, wants another "once in a lifetime" referendum on leaving the UK just 2 years after their last "once in a lifetime" referendum on the same) and borders being closed again across Ireland (which is in the EU) and Northern Ireland (currently borderless and reliant on each other for business....not to mention for harmony and the ease of *troubles* (remember them?) between the two countries). So all things will be better then.....not! :roll:

Oh, yes, the economy: well that has already fallen and we havent even left (or even announced leaving) yet.

Can the BREXIT be undone? Technically yes. It wasnt legally binding (it was just public opinion) and it hasnt yet been formally declared. The actual act of leaving needs to be passed in Parliament. And yes, MOST MP's want to Remain. So you could argue "why dont they just vote against leaving?". Answer: carnage. 17million (erm.... maybe 15 million due to around 2 million already regretting voting out - theyre the dead heads that are dangers to themselves), all taking to the streets and causing riots. There isn't a (decent) politician in the land that would block the Brexit even though it is not their wish.

SUMMARY of current situation:
  • * Economy is down
    * Pound has fallen
    * government still talking about what they are going to want to talk about eventually to an EU Commission that will not want to talk about anything
    * talk of new recession on the horizon
    * and lots of nothing happening yet.
That's the short version. (Be thankful you are not in my actual company whilst Im discussing this - I get VERY animated).

(And if we didnt think there was enough international upset in the world right now, there's a chance the new Leader of the Free World is going to be DONALD TRUMP!! God Help US ALL!!)
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Re: "BREXIT" - for those of you not familiar......

Post by mattg » 2016-07-28 01:39

SO you advocate doing what is 'right' against what is popular? How is that democracy? That's a slippery slope I reckon once you start...
:mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen:
jimimaseye wrote:(And if we didnt think there was enough international upset in the world right now, there's a chance the new Leader of the Free World is going to be DONALD TRUMP!! God Help US ALL!!)
Perhaps the other choice is worse. There are a lot of stories about corruption and big business favours circulating the conservative side of politics. There are even many suggestions that the level of corruption is highly illegal.

From what I understand Obama is more popular in the rest of the world than he is in his own country. Certainly here in Australia we (generally) quite like him. I see that his political reforms are close to the policies our conservative parties, but the Americans that I talk to seem to think that he is near communist (far left).

We recently had a federal election here in Oz. It wasn't about who won, it was about who lost by lowest margin. It was (IMHO) a race to the bottom, and the team who lost the race to the bottom were actually considered to be in front and have re-formed government.

From what I understand more than 65% of trade that we have with the EU is in fact with the UK, and for us to have to negotiate with the UK separately than with the EU is no big deal, and going forward the UK will get the better deal. I'm sure that if the UK is struggling to find a negotiator they just need look to 'the colonies'. We have some fine negotiators in Australia who would not be afraid to look the EU negotiators in the eye and have the best interests of the UK in mind. Same for India, New Zealand, Canada and South Africa.

It may not be all doom and gloom. :D
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Re: "BREXIT" - for those of you not familiar......

Post by MrGadget » 2016-07-28 07:52

@jimimaseye - great write-up, thank you! For you and Matt, please allow me to share my perspective.

Full disclosure: I land somewhere between Conservative and Libertarian. I don't know if those labels translate properly or not so I linked them to their respective Wikipedia pages.

1) Clintons are as corrupt as they come. She should have been indicted for exposing classified material, and she's now being investigated for lying under oath to Congress (which she did...there's video). Further, the Clinton Foundation is also under investigation for being a tax-sheltered lifestyle enhancement for the Clinton family, and for her potentially doing political favors in exchange for "contributions" to the foundation. Beyond all that, her ideology is so far left as to approach socialism, which anyone right of center, by a little or a lot, cannot stand, and domestically our people are more polarized than ever. The so-called "moderates in the middle" are fading to one side or the other. Recently the leader of the Democratic Party was ousted over leaked emails that were quite damning with regard to actions taken against Hillary's rival for the nomination. Amazingly, this ousted leader was immediately hired by the Clinton campaign. Thick as thieves, they are.

2) I can't speak for how Obama is viewed on the world stage, but on the domestic front, it is a nearly even split, depending on who you ask and their ideology. We tend to like our leaders most when they're hurting us the least, and we're closing in on 6 years of stalemate between the Obama and Congress. Beyond that, half of us have the attention span of a housefly and are thus ill-informed and wholly self-absorbed in our own little corners. The rest of us thought Obama's suggestion that the UK would "go to the back of the line" was appalling. We love doing business with the UK and we'd like to develop next generation energy technology with the UK. Trade has been fair and balanced, and the UK has stood right with us in virtually every military conflict on that side of the rock. We're good together and we know it. Hillary might want to put you in the back of the bus, but Trump will definitely not. I hope you take that to heart. The Democrats had, for the first two years of Obama's term, what we call "the trifecta", meaning they held the White House and a majority in both houses of our Congress. That's the unique condition wherein significant policy can actually be enacted and implemented, and they launched headlong into a national health insurance disaster and economic policies that have doubled our national debt from $10T when he was elected to $20T by the time he will leave office in 6 months. Our GDP is flat, wages are flat, and our cost of living has gone up significantly, particularly in healthcare and food and energy. While the global oil price drop has dropped gas prices by almost half, and domestic transportation costs overall by about 1/3, those gains were a drop in the ocean against the other rising costs. While Obama likes to claim a low employment rate, it's a false positive, as our labor participation rate is the lowest is has been in decades. There are seriously a lot of people not working, not producing, and not contributing to our domestic economy, and our craptastic GDP reflects that. Hillary will continue these same policies, whereas Trump, if elected while retaining a Republican majority in both houses, is committed to reversing the tide and getting the US back to work and back to what we're good at...wealth building.

3) On immigration, I was under the impression that the UK issue was more about a flood of unvetted refugees and embedded terrorists that have no interest in assimilating to modern western culture, where religion isn't the law of the land, everyone has equal rights and protections, etc. Having born and bred Europeans coming and going and working was fine for all in the EU, but when some members of the EU started taking in tens of thousands of people that have among them those that can't play well with others, Britons didn't like it much. Here in the US, we're struggling with similar issues with regard to the same refugees, plus the Democrats' porous border policy has resulted in a flood of illegal entries of people we can't deal with...about 15M of them, many of which are minors, and half of which are unskilled and are thus not able to sustain themselves and end up on the dole or competing against American workers for entry level jobs that they'll take at slave wages (even though that's supposed to be illegal) just to stay here.

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Re: "BREXIT" - for those of you not familiar......

Post by MrGadget » 2016-07-28 08:28

So many typos and I can't fix them now...sorry...it's what I get for writing at 2am.

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Re: "BREXIT" - for those of you not familiar......

Post by jimimaseye » 2016-07-28 10:29

mattg wrote:SO you advocate doing what is 'right' against what is popular? How is that democracy? That's a slippery slope I reckon once you start...
:mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen:
Yes, I absolutely do.

We, like you, and America, and most of the rest of the Western civilised countries, live in and operate a Parliamentary Democracy. That means, the people are asked to elect a representative to act on their behalf in the running of the country - ultimately leading to a Prime Minister/President type figure and a 'house of representatives' (or Parliament) all debating and voting on things in the name of running the country. Those representatives (MPs/Senators/etc) are best well placed with focused debate, access to relevant departments and expert opinion, knowledge of the internal workings of running a country, history, and more importantly focus on that their actions and choices affect many (a varying range of people and demographics) and not just themselves. 'The Public' do not, and are not, capable of doing this and should not be given important votes because most are simply incapable of thinking beyond their own little localised problem that affects them personally and simply cannot comprehend the cost implications and finances that are involved in running a country.

Example: one man interviewed on why vote Brexit: "Because of the EU I have to spend £350 on new labels for my product when exporting them just to satisfy EU regulations". Conveniently forgetting the key point that he is exporting and consequently getting his money back many many multiple times over and without the EU he wouldnt be doing that exporting. (Thats ok, lets come out of the EU, and stop your exporting and save your £350 so you can still use your old style labels to sell to whatever little market you can reach in the UK).

This quote:
MrGadget wrote:Beyond that, half of us have the attention span of a housefly and are thus ill-informed and wholly self-absorbed in our own little corners
....pretty much reflects in more colourful words what I am saying above about the public and why they should not be given votes on NATIONAL (or International) relationships and dealings of a country. Want more proof? https://youtu.be/XDdLxTXBaAY (Some people are a danger to themselves and perfect examples why 'natural selection' should be applauded).

GOVERNMENTS make decisions on the running of a country based on what THE HOUSE believes is right. If the people dont like it, then they should change their vote for their MP at the next election (or even put themselves up for election and becomes a representative themselves). And living in what we all determine to be a civilised Western world we have to accept that.

Alternatively, you do not have a Parliamentary Democracy, and choose to ask the people in Referendums. But to do so you need to make this the standard. (You would keep holding costly referendums for the stupidist of little things). And that is simply unpractical, and for the reasons mentioned above, dangerous. (Great for a deepest Peruvian tribe of 100 but not for a country of millions). Of course, there is the 3rd option: for details and benefits on that you should ask about lifestyle to the people of China, North Korea, Russia, Cuba and any other communist state and see how they like their freedom and prosperity.
jimimaseye wrote:(And if we didnt think there was enough international upset in the world right now, there's a chance the new Leader of the Free World is going to be DONALD TRUMP!! God Help US ALL!!)
I say this as a member of THE WORLD, and not a citizen of U.S.A. (hence the "us all"). I dont know enough, nor care really, about the internal politics between Democrats or Republicans, who is best or who has the bigger car. I care only because whoever the American President is can (and does!) affect global harmony in as much as they are always locking horns or enacting (self-appointed) policing of world affairs in other countries. And because of this they need to be mindful of their actions and how they affect the rest of the globe and be diplomatic in what they say and do. And the one thing you cannot say about Donald Trump is that he is diplomatic. Donald Trump as president may, or may not, be a good thing for U.S citizens (as long as they are white, men and able-bodied). It's the rest of the population and the rest of the worlds citizens that need to worry.

By the way, not that I want to deflect from the thread topic (perhaps you could raise another thread to discuss America), but one thing that is heard very often over here on TV by commentators, journalists and general opinion, is this: Donald Trump keeps going on about making America "great" again. When was America actually 'great'? He wants to go back 50 years? Where racial segregation and intolerance was (even more) rife? He wants to 'build walls' (oh pleeeease!) and 'ban muslims' (alienating 2 billion people across the globe) thinking that will solve problems (despite all recent terror attacks in America coming from American citizens. Or ensure every citizen is armed as arming yourself is 'the answer' to "being shot" (this logic baffles me). Despite 40,000 people officially being shot in 2015 with 13,200 of them being fatal. And yet, he thinks Americas threat is a RELIGION? How do you identify a Muslim, Donald? Do you think they all wear a badge? Or that all countries have a single religion? (By the way, in the recent Dallas 'police murder' incident where the shooter was running around with a gun - do you know what the main cause of problem was for the Police? They couldnt immediately identify the attacker easily because whereas in any other country it would be the one carrying the gun, in Dallas everyone was carrying a gun as its legal and encouraged! And that didnt help anyone, did it. Still, this 'lets carry guns' debate goes on and meantime the deaths continue.)

And for those that really want to think he is the man.... look back at his interviews. He says "we will..." and "he wants...." a lot (a LOT) and even repeats his statements even when asked another question. But he doesnt actually say HOW or WHAT he is going to do. Words are very easy.........

Back to BREXIT related....
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Re: "BREXIT" - for those of you not familiar......

Post by jimimaseye » 2016-07-28 10:44

One other thing.....

You guys have already mentioned and identified 'problems' within your respective countries regarding Economy (and Government distrust - corruption, dishonesty etc). Why dont people see that this is the same across the globe? It isnt just your/their country, or the failing of one particular government, it is a global spread. We can find the same things being said domestically in most countries and their goverments. Shock news: there was a global recession of the last 10 years. (Admittedly, ahem, mainly brought on by America and its bad financial management of the banking sector).

And yet, what is seen to be the best answer to this? Remove yourself from a common market with 27 other countries (with hope of forging new markets with 4 or five other replacement countries), and/or voting in the best of a bad bunch of new leaders just to say you have removed the old ones?

Open eyes and common sense and lack of it: THIS is the problem. And until that i acknowledged no regime change, or government 'over throw' will make a difference.

(p.s, bringing it back to Turkey and Europe as mentioned earlier in the thread: What's the chances that they have climbed the ladder and are now somewhat nearer to a total acceptance into the EU recently? The EU loves a military coup and oppression of free speech. :lol: )
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Re: "BREXIT" - for those of you not familiar......

Post by katip » 2016-07-28 12:30

jimimaseye wrote:The EU loves a military coup and oppression of free speech. :lol: )
LOL!
EU (& some US) media were almost applauding that coup attempt - which was aiming some kind of sharia regime - till 10 pm on that night. then folks got out and defeated it with bare hands within few hours. (250+ loss, 2000+ injured btw). now that media talking about counter-coup and oppression of free speech. i wonder what they'd say for the same in their own country. someone fired a gun and killed 3-5 people in Munich few days ago. they declared "state of emergency"!!! beyond funny...

no, with their double-standards they don't care about democracy or freedom in universal sense.
motto : "anything but Erdogan! then we see what we do, even with a sharia regime..."

sorry, things look so from where i'm staying - in the middle of the realities.

to what concerns the topic... for sure, you know and judge it better.
but just one thing i can say is that a referandum (plebiscite) is not a doodle. there is no "sorry". or it ruins seriousness of popular sovereignty. that's no good mates.
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percepts
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Re: "BREXIT" - for those of you not familiar......

Post by percepts » 2016-07-28 15:26

anyone with an ounce of inteligence should be aware that all countries have import and export tarrifs. They all operate protectionist policies for their economies. Only in free trade zones do they not. Since the UK imports far more product from the EU than it exports to the EU it should be obvious that we will make money out of the deal even when we have to pay EU import tarrifs because they will paying far more in total to us when they pay our import tarrifs. If they stop exporting to us it will hit their manfacturers very hard. Not least the german car industry. Much harder than ours since we export so little to them.
Then we save Billions in EU membership costs.
Then we can make any deals we like with the rest of the world and not be forced to use the EU protectionist import/export tarrifs which stop us from making our own deals. i.e. we can make free trade deals with other countries if we like. And we can reduce or make free our trade deals with Commonwealth countries who were hit hard by us going into the EU in the first place. We can only do well out of coming out of the EU. And we'll get rid of all the stupid EU law making and get rid of all the third rate EU politicians we employ to spend time in airports and going to committee meetings. Bring pounds shillings and pence is what I say!

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Re: "BREXIT" - for those of you not familiar......

Post by jimimaseye » 2016-07-28 18:06

We will save NET £161million a week on membership costs. Out of that, deduct the cost of the economy (already declining and we havent even left yet), higher prices (due to, for example, having to pay our farmers more for their products due to them no longer getting their subsidies), the potential cost of losing the Japanese car industry (Nissan, Toyota) that operates from out of the UK due to it being a window into Europe (needed to tackle the car manufacturing countries such as France (Peugeot, Citreon and Renault), Germany (VW, Mercedes, BMW and Audi) and Italy (Fiat and all cars fall-apart-able) - having higher prices for their cars will damage their trade, possibly irrevocably. OH, and then there's the much 'desired' higher wages that we so want to receive (by getting rid of the cheaper Eastern European workers that apparently work for next to nothing) which, in turn of course, will out up the prices of whatever services or product youre going to buy. Oh, and then theres the finnancial services/banks that are planning to relocate from London. And cost in insurance premiums due to banks no longer making as much money as they used to due to the fall in the pound. And of course the rise in fuel due to a weak pound again the US dollar. And the uplifted cost of transporting goods around due to that insurance and fuel increase.

And then pit that £161million a week to the £1.4BILLION and £2.6BILLION (£4 billion total a week) spent on education and NHS alone. Even if you wanted to believe the now proven false claims that the money saved would be spent on NHS, £161 million on to £1.4billion isnt going to make a squat of difference. (But of course, this is irrelevant now because as soon as the vote was counted the Brexit camp admitted the claim was bollocks and should never have been made - it simply was never going to be saved and spent on the NHS).

Yeah. Things look just tickety-boo. And this, of course, is completely avoiding the issue of PEOPLE that are going to be completely disrupted and messed around. Families broken and split, jobs lost and racism increased. (Racist attacks already on the rise since Brexit. Disgusting.) I personally am almost certainly going to be a victim of it and suffer in a very dramatic way.

But I guess only time will tell to what extent "We can only do well out of coming out of the EU", or how bad it will be to the contrary. The one thing for sure is it is going to get A LOT worse before there is any sniff of a hope of it getting better. And its likely to not be to the detriment of those people that voted to leave (statistically more over 65 years of age - already living on pensions and dont have job worries to care about and will be long dead by the time things improve.) Its the youngsters, who really has a future to live that will have to live through whatever turmoil there will be (in the short and long term).
percepts wrote: Bring pounds shillings and pence is what I say!
Avoiding the tempting sarcastic reply, and acknowledging that it was probably made in tongue-in-cheek, it does make me wonder: If things were sooo good all those years ago then why did they see the need to go in to the EU in the first place. We are going BACKWARDS. We'll be fighting the Scots and the French next. (Oh, wait, hang on.......)
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